Authorize bounded action
Evidence and declared losses support action within explicit controls.
SRAI EXECUTIVE PATHWAY · EP-M03
Deciding When Evidence Is Incomplete
Update beliefs transparently, compare asymmetric consequences and test whether the preferred action remains defensible before choosing to ACT, PILOT, WAIT AND LEARN or ESCALATE.
01 / EXECUTIVE OUTCOME
Make uncertainty visible without allowing it to paralyse the decision.
Document the prior, evaluate the diagnostic weight of new evidence, update beliefs, compare posterior expected losses and preserve the authority of accountable human decision-makers.
02 / GOVERNED DECISION SYSTEM
Connect evidence, consequences and authority in one reviewable record.
- 01
Decision and authority
State the decision, scope, horizon and accountable owner.
- 02
States and prior
Declare consequential states, omitted possibilities and prior provenance.
- 03
Evidence and likelihoods
Assess diagnostic weight, dependence, quality and possible distortion.
- 04
Posterior and range
Update beliefs and report credible ranges rather than false precision.
- 05
Loss and constraints
Compare asymmetric consequences while protecting rights and safety.
- 06
Sensitivity and information
Locate reversals and test whether additional evidence is worth its cost and delay.
- 07
Review and authorization
Record triggers, exit rules, affected groups and the final human sign-off.
Learn at acceptable cost
A limited intervention can resolve material uncertainty safely.
Delay deliberately
The value of additional evidence exceeds the cost of waiting.
Refer the decision
Missing states, constraints or authority exceed the current mandate.
03 / VIDEO LESSON
Deciding when evidence is incomplete
Follow the complete executive workflow from prior beliefs and diagnostic evidence through posterior loss, sensitivity, information value and accountable authorization.
Open the executive lesson on YouTube ↗04 / LEARNING RESOURCES
Five resources for executive study, practice and reproducible analysis.
Use the lesson and brief to prepare, the exercises to rehearse the decision process, the presentation to review the narrative and the notebook to challenge the calculations.
Canonical executive lesson
Study how evidence updates beliefs without replacing accountable judgment.
Open PDF ↓Executive brief
Use the concise reference for evidence review and authorization meetings.
Open PDF ↓Practice exercises
Apply updating, loss, sensitivity and information-value reasoning.
Open PDF ↓Executive presentation
Review the governed decision sequence and sector applications.
Open PDF ↓Companion notebook
Reproduce the calculations and test uncertainty, reversals and missing states.
Open IPYNB ↓05 / PRIORITY SECTORS
One decision discipline, four public-value settings.
Agriculture anchors the canonical case. Education, Health and Habitat demonstrate how the same reasoning transfers while sector owners retain responsibility for evidence, losses, constraints and authorization.
06 / TECHNICAL CONTINUITY
The executive treatment preserves the former Book 6 Chapter 3 technical core.
The module retains Bayesian updating, likelihood ratios, asymmetric loss, decision thresholds, sequential evidence, sensitivity analysis, model misspecification, distributional effects and value of information.
Continue to the Full Curriculum →